Facebook Stalking the Candidates

I'll be honest: I didn't want to write a blog entry this week, I just wanted to waste my time on Facebook. However, both Representative Joe Wilson and Rob Miller have Facebook fan pages, so I decided to turn my procrastination into productivity and check out what kind of messages each candidate was sending to his fans. Wilson's Facebook page can be found here, and Miller's page is here.

As a side note, Wilson has 22,729 fans, while Miller has 5,510. One would think that such a large discrepancy in fans wouldn't bode well for Miller in the general election. However, two things should be noted: people in any part of the world can become “fans” of either candidate, and I have yet to see a study showing a correlation between a candidate's election results and the number of Facebook fans he or she has.

Miller tends to keep his Facebook status updates light, with many announcements about upcoming campaign events and photographs from previous ones, such as the picture above of him marching in a parade in Irmo, SC. If I were a voter in his district, I would be pleased that I was being offered so many opportunities to meet with Miller and get involved in the campaign, but I would be frustrated at the lack of depth and policy detail I found on his page.

The image above is the default image on Joe Wilson's Facebook fan page, and the rest of his page is similar in tone. Wilson posts many status updates and links with negative commentary about his political opponents, especially President Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi. He even posted a video of himself speaking at a Fire Pelosi rally at the University of South Carolina. This harshly negative strategy could be very effective at getting his supporters motivated to vote and support his campaign. However, I could also see him alienating moderate voters who may support some of Obama and Pelosi's policy goals.

I think Wilson has the more effective page. It is clearly targeted at his most fervent conservative supporters, and I think it will tap into the anger many of them currently feel. I do not see anything on Miller's page that would similarly inspire liberals.

Military Man

In 2006, 27% of the members of the House of Representatives had previously been lawyers, 25% had been in public service and 22% had been in the business field. Rob Miller, the Democratic challenger to Republican Representative Joe Wilson in South Carolina's 2nd district, comes from a slightly different career path. His previous career was in the military, which produces only 9% of our Representatives. Miller's military career could potentially set him apart and give him a greater chance of winning his election than the average Democratic politician in this district.

Many Representatives have previously served in the military, but very few have done so for much of their career. Rob Miller served in the Marine Corps for 13 years, enlisting during his freshman year of college in 1995. He served two tours in Iraq and reached the rank of captain. Upon retiring from the Marine Corps in 2008, he and his wife opened up a store selling Marine Corps merchandise. Miller is a young politician and all of his professional experience is related to the military in some way.

The conventional wisdom for this year is that America is in an anti-establishment, anti-incumbent mood. Facing an incumbent is always a tall order, but it may be easier this year. If it is, Rob Miller may benefit from the perception that he is not a part of the political establishment, since his career path to date is rather unconventional for politicians. However, he was the Democratic nominee for this House seat in 2008 and lost by 8 points. Some voters may see him as part of the Democratic establishment because of this, which would harm his chances of victory.

SC-02 is also a district with a strong military presence. Parris Island, Fort Jackson and a Marine Corps air station are all located in the district. Voters may feel that they can relate to Miller's military background and be more inclined to vote for him. However, this may be tempered somewhat by the tendency of military members and veterans to vote Republican.

I think that Rob Miller's unconventional background will help him in a district so closely tied to the military. It remains to be seen if this will be enough for him to defeat Joe Wilson this time.

Week 1

South Carolina's second Congressional district is currently represented by Republican Joe Wilson. Joe Wilson is best known for a minor scandal that took place during President Barack Obama's speech to Congress about the health care bill in 2009. When the President stated that the bill would not provide health insurance for illegal immigrants, Representative Wilson shouted “You lie!” Liberals claimed that Wilson's remarks showed a lack of respect for the President, while some conservatives claimed that Wilson was brave for speaking his mind. A flurry of donations from across the nation poured in immediately after the speech for both Joe Wilson and his Democratic opponent, Rob Miller, a retired Marine who served in Iraq and is currently a small business owner. This is the race I have chosen to cover until the election.

This election will probably be quite competitive. When Rob Miller ran against Joe Wilson in 2008, Wilson garnered 54% of the vote to Miller's 46%. Both candidates have about 1.7 million dollars as cash on hand for their campaigns. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified this race as one of its 25 “Red To Blue” races for 2010, and will lend additional financial and volunteer support to Rob Miller's campaign.

Chapter 1 of Paul S. Herrnson's book Congressional Elections claims that congressional elections in the U.S. are generally focused on candidates, not political parties. However, this year, the media narrative has been focused on electoral difficulties for the Democratic Party. I am curious about whether this election will focus on the individual candidates, and particularly Wilson's gaffe, or on the national stances and actions of the two major parties, and what the effects of that focus would be on each candidate.

I would also like to examine how the national attention Joe Wilson has received will affect this race. I am curious about how voters in heavily Republican SC-02 view Wilson: is he a source of pride or embarrassment to them? Will they still want to support him in this election? This is the main question I would like to find an answer to between now and the election on November 2^nd.