A recent poll commissioned by Democrat Rob Miller's campaign showed him trailing Republican Representative Joe Wilson in the SC-02 race by 7 points on October 15th. Previous polls had showed Wilson beating Miller by 15 points in May and 10 in September, indicating that Miller may be closing the gap. Of course, Miller is still losing, three polls is a small sample size, and as New York Times' statistical guru Nate Silver reminds us, momentum doesn't necessarily mean much, the polls could stop moving or swing in the other direction at any time. Still, I think that Miller is climbing in the polls because he is running a strong campaign and attacking Wilson in three key areas that give him the best possible advantage in this election. Let's take a look at those areas.
The $100,000 referenced in this ad for "vacations" is part of a controversial issue for Rep. Wilson that is described in greater detail here. In short, Wilson claims that each visit was to "support the troops," while Miller says this is not true and the trips represent wasteful spending. This and the other claims in the ad create a massive headache for Wilson in an election season where many voters are concerned about excessive government spending.
In addition, in the article linked above, Miller states that in his experience as a combat veteran, visits from politicians require large amounts of extra security, and the benefits to the troops are outweighed by the additional costs. This critique reminds voters that Rob Miller's military experience vastly outweighs Joe Wilson's. In this heavily militarized district, that could make a difference. To bring the point home, Rob Miller is also attacking Joe Wilson for his D rating from Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, a nonpartisan group that advocates for policies to improve the lives of veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I previously discussed one of Rob Miller's other ads in this entry. The main point behind that ad was that Joe Wilson was voting for policies that supported big business and himself, while taking jobs away from the average worker, and the ad played off Wilson's slogan "Joe Means Jobs." As I said before, I think this ad was very effective, especially since the unemployment rate remains high.
Many voters don't like negative advertising and attacks on political opponents, but Rob Miller seems to be using them very effectively in his campaign for Congress. Surprisingly, these attacks don't generally include the infamous "You lie!" incident, although it's apparent Miller supporters haven't forgotten about it. Take a gander at this cleverly titled article about Wilson's trips to the troops: Dodging Mortars? You Lie!
There are alot of interesting variables in this district, some of them are kind of ironic. Miller is the combat veteran, yet it is Wilson who is spending outrageous amounts of taxpayer money to visit the troops. Furthermore, Wilson has receieved a D rating from a Veteran's group. Clearly his visits to troops are not increasing his popularity among them. I think Miller might have political gold here, seeing as he is the veteran, and South Carolina is a fairly conservative state which is generally associated with supporting the troops.
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